| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Journal Article | |||
| Site | mtc-m21c.sid.inpe.br (namespace prefix: upn:3Q3U5H8) | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34R/428HEUP | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2020/03.30.11.59 | |||
| Last Update | 2020:03.30.11.59.33 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2020/03.30.11.59.33 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2022:01.04.01.35.02 (UTC) administrator | |||
| DOI | 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0106.1 | |||
| ISSN | 0882-8156 | |||
| Citation Key | GublerSBACEJMSSS:2020:AsECSE | |||
| Title | Assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast performance over South America  | |||
| Year | 2020 | |||
| Month | Apr. | |||
| Access Date | 2025, Dec. 08 | |||
| Type of Work | journal article | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE PI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 5639 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Gubler, S. 2 Sedlmeier, K. 3 Bhend, J. 4 Avalos, G. 5 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 6 Escajadillo, Y. 7 Jacques-Coper, M. 8 Martinez, R. 9 Schwierz, C. 10 Skansi, M. de 11 Spirig, C. H. | |||
| Group | 1 2 3 4 5 DIDOP-CGCPT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss 2 Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss 3 Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss 4 Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú 5 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 6 Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú 7 Universidad de Concepción 8 Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El Niño 9 Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss 10 Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Buenos Aires 11 Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 stefanie.gubler@meteoswiss.ch 2 3 4 5 caio.coelho@inpe.br | |||
| Journal | Weather and Forecasting | |||
| Volume | 35 | |||
| Number | 2 | |||
| Pages | 561-584 | |||
| Secondary Mark | A2_INTERDISCIPLINAR A2_GEOCIÊNCIAS | |||
| Host Collection | urlib.net/www/2017/11.22.19.04 upn:3Q3U5H8 | |||
| History (UTC) | 2020-03-30 11:59:33 :: simone -> administrator :: 2020-03-30 11:59:34 :: administrator -> simone :: 2020 2020-06-23 22:27:09 :: simone -> administrator :: 2020 2022-01-04 01:35:02 :: administrator -> simone :: 2020 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Abstract | Seasonal predictions have a great socioeconomic potential if they are reliable and skillful. In this study, we assess the prediction performance of SEAS5, version 5 of the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), over South America against homogenized station data. For temperature, we find the highest prediction performances in the tropics during austral summer, where the probability that the predictions correctly discriminate different observed outcomes is 70%. In regions lying to the east of the Andes, the predictions of maximum and minimum temperature still exhibit considerable performance, while farther to the south in Chile and Argentina the temperature prediction performance is low. Generally, the prediction performance of minimum temperature is slightly lower than for maximum temperature. The prediction performance of precipitation is generally lower and spatially and temporally more variable than for temperature. The highest prediction performance is observed at the coast and over the highlands of Colombia and Ecuador, over the northeastern part of Brazil, and over an isolated region to the north of Uruguay during DJF. In general, Niño-3.4 has a strong influence on both air temperature and precipitation in the regions where ECMWF SEAS5 shows high performance, in some regions through teleconnections (e.g., to the north of Uruguay). However, we show that SEAS5 outperforms a simple empirical prediction based on Niño-3.4 in most regions where the prediction performance of the dynamical model is high, thereby supporting the potential benefit of using a dynamical model instead of statistical relationships for predictions at the seasonal scale. | |||
| Area | MET | |||
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Assessment of ECMWF... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| data URI | upn:3Q3U5H8:8JMKD3MGP3W34R/428HEUP | |||
| data URL | http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/428HEUP | |||
| zipped data URL | http://urlib.net/zip/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/428HEUP | |||
| Language | en | |||
| Target File | gubler_assessment.pdf | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher6 allowfinaldraft | |||
| Read Permission | allow from all | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE | |||
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2021/01.02.22.14 - 35 | |||
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA; COMPENDEX. | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn keywords label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||