| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Journal Article | |||
| Site | mtc-m21c.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34R/42JGB6H | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2020/05.30.17.58 (restricted access) | |||
| Last Update | 2020:11.03.10.48.48 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2020/05.30.17.58.08 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2022:01.04.01.35.10 (UTC) administrator | |||
| DOI | 10.1002/qj.3725 | |||
| ISSN | 0035-9009 | |||
| Citation Key | GuimarãesCWKBFBS:2020:CoHiQu | |||
| Title | Configuration and hindcast quality assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction system  | |||
| Year | 2020 | |||
| Month | Apr. | |||
| Access Date | 2024, Apr. 24 | |||
| Type of Work | journal article | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE PI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 7976 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Guimarães, Bruno dos Santos 2 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 3 Woolnough, Steven J. 4 Kubota, Paulo Yoshio 5 Bastarz, Carlos Frederico 6 Figueroa, Silvio NIlo 7 Bonatti, José Paulo 8 Souza, Dayana Castilho de | |||
| Resume Identifier | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHJ7 | |||
| ORCID | 1 0000-0003-3855-5362 2 3 4 0000-0003-4858-1337 | |||
| Group | 1 MET-MET-SESPG-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 2 DIDOP-CGCPT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 3 4 DIDMD-CGCPT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 5 DIDMD-CGCPT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 6 7 DIDMD-CGCPT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 8 YYY-CGCPT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 3 University of Reading 4 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 5 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 6 7 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 8 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 2 caio.coelho@cptec.inpe.br 3 4 paulo.kubota@inpe.br 5 carlos.bastarz@inpe.br 6 silvio.figueroa@inpe.br | |||
| Journal | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society | |||
| Volume | 146 | |||
| Number | 728 | |||
| Pages | 1067-1084 | |||
| Secondary Mark | A1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A2_ENGENHARIAS_I | |||
| History (UTC) | 2020-05-30 18:03:25 :: simone -> administrator :: 2020 2020-06-01 21:02:30 :: administrator -> simone :: 2020 2020-06-19 13:45:40 :: simone -> administrator :: 2020 2020-07-08 17:10:56 :: administrator -> simone :: 2020 2020-11-03 10:48:48 :: simone -> administrator :: 2020 2022-01-04 01:35:10 :: administrator -> simone :: 2020 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Keywords | forecast verification intraseasonal variability MJO | |||
| Abstract | This article presents the Centre for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) developments for configuring a global sub-seasonal prediction system and assessing its ability in producing retrospective predictions (hindcasts) for meteorological conditions of the following 4 weeks. Six Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) configurations were tested in terms of vertical resolution, deep convection and boundary-layer parametrizations, as well as soil moisture initialization. The aim was to identify the configuration with best performance when predicting weekly accumulated precipitation, weekly mean 2 m temperature (T2M) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) daily evolution. Hindcasts assessment was performed for 12 extended austral summers (November-March, 1999/2000- 2010/2011) with two start dates for each month for the six configurations and two ensemble approaches. The first approach, referred to as Multiple Configurations Ensemble (MCEN), was formed of one ensemble member from each of the six configurations. The second, referred to as Initial Condition Ensemble (ICEN), was composed of six ensemble members produced with the chosen configuration as the best using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) perturbation methodology. The chosen configuration presented high correlation and low root-mean-squared error (RMSE) for precipitation and T2M anomaly predictions at the first week and these indices degraded as lead time increased, maintaining moderate performance up to week-4 over the tropical Pacific and northern South America. For MJO predictions, this configuration crossed the 0.5 bivariate correlation threshold in 18 days. The ensemble approaches improved the correlation and RMSE of precipitation and T2M anomalies. ICEN improved precipitation and T2M predictions performance over eastern South America at week-3 and over northern South America at week-4. Improvements were also noticed for MJO predictions. The time to cross the above-mentioned threshold increased to 21 days for MCEN and to 20 days for ICEN. | |||
| Area | MET | |||
| Arrangement 1 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção pgr ATUAIS > MET > Configuration and hindcast... | |||
| Arrangement 2 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDMD > Configuration and hindcast... | |||
| Arrangement 3 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Configuration and hindcast... | |||
| Arrangement 4 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > YYY-PCI-CGCPT > Configuration and hindcast... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| Language | en | |||
| Target File | guimaraes_configuration2.pdf | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Reader Group | administrator simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher denyfinaldraft | |||
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F35TRS 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SKC35 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE 8JMKD3MGPCW/445QBLE | |||
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2021/01.02.22.14 1 | |||
| Dissemination | WEBSCI | |||
| Host Collection | urlib.net/www/2017/11.22.19.04 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||