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1. Identity statement
Reference TypeJournal Article
Sitemtc-m21c.sid.inpe.br
Holder Codeisadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S
Identifier8JMKD3MGP3W34R/44ED6E5
Repositorysid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2021/04.02.13.44
Last Update2021:04.02.13.48.16 (UTC) administrator
Metadata Repositorysid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2021/04.02.13.44.53
Metadata Last Update2022:06.07.22.38.13 (UTC) administrator
DOI10.1175/WAF-D-19-0203.1
ISSN0882-8156
Citation KeyKlingamanYCGGWCKH:2021:SuPrPe
TitleSubseasonal prediction performance for austral summer South American rainfall
Year2021
Access Date2025, June 04
Type of Workjournal article
Secondary TypePRE PI
Number of Files1
Size4906 KiB
2. Context
Author1 Klingaman, Nicholas P.
2 Young, Matthew
3 Chevuturi, Amulya
4 Guimarães, Bruno dos Santos
5 Guo, Liang
6 Woolnought, Steven J.
7 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos
8 Kubota, Paulo Yoshio
9 Holloway, Christopher E.
Group1
2
3
4 MET-MET-DIPGR-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
5
6
7 DIPTC-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
8 DIMNT-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
Affiliation1 University of Reading
2 University of Reading
3 University of Reading
4 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
5 University of Reading
6 University of Reading
7 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
8 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
9 University of Reading
Author e-Mail Address1 nicholas.klingaman@ncas.ac.uk
2
3
4 bruno.guimaraes@inpe.br
5
6
7 caio.augusto.coelho@gmail.com
8 pkubota@gmail.com
JournalWeather and Forecasting
Volume36
Number1
Pages147-169
Secondary MarkA2_INTERDISCIPLINAR A2_GEOCIÊNCIAS
History (UTC)2021-04-02 13:44:53 :: simone -> administrator ::
2021-04-02 13:44:54 :: administrator -> simone :: 2021
2021-04-02 13:48:18 :: simone -> administrator :: 2021
2022-06-07 22:38:13 :: administrator -> simone :: 2021
3. Content and structure
Is the master or a copy?is the master
Content Stagecompleted
Transferable1
Content TypeExternal Contribution
Version Typepublisher
KeywordsSouth America
ENSO
Madden-Julian oscillation
Rainfall
Forecast verification/skill
Intraseasonal variability
AbstractSkillful and reliable predictions of week-to-week rainfall variations in South America, two to three weeks ahead, are essential to protect lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems. We evaluate forecast performance for weekly rainfall in extended austral summer (NovemberMarch) in four contemporary subseasonal systems, including a new Brazilian model, at 15-week leads for 19992010. We measure performance by the correlation coefficient (in time) between predicted and observed rainfall; we measure skill by the Brier skill score for rainfall terciles against a climatological reference forecast. We assess unconditional performance (i.e., regardless of initial condition) and conditional performance based on the initial phase of the MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO) and El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO). All models display substantial mean rainfall biases, including dry biases in Amazonia and wet biases near the Andes, which are established by week 1 and vary little thereafter. Unconditional performance extends to week 2 in all regions except for Amazonia and the Andes, but to week 3 only over northern, northeastern, and southeastern South America. Skill for upper-and lower-tercile rainfall extends only to week 1. Conditional performance is not systematically or significantly higher than unconditional perfor-mance; ENSO and MJO events provide limited windows of opportunity for improved S2S predictions that are region and model dependent. Conditional performance may be degraded by errors in predicted ENSO and MJO teleconnections to regional rainfall, even at short lead times.
AreaMET
Arrangement 1urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção pgr ATUAIS > MET > Subseasonal prediction performance...
Arrangement 2urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção a partir de 2021 > CGCT > Subseasonal prediction performance...
doc Directory Contentaccess
source Directory Contentthere are no files
agreement Directory Content
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4. Conditions of access and use
data URLhttp://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/44ED6E5
zipped data URLhttp://urlib.net/zip/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/44ED6E5
Languageen
Target Fileklingaman_subseasonal.pdf
User Groupsimone
Visibilityshown
Archiving Policydenypublisher6 allowfinaldraft
Read Permissionallow from all
Update Permissionnot transferred
5. Allied materials
Next Higher Units8JMKD3MGPCW/3F35TRS
8JMKD3MGPCW/46KUATE
Citing Item Listsid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/10.15.01.34 10
sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2022/04.03.22.23 4
DisseminationWEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA; COMPENDEX.
Host Collectionurlib.net/www/2017/11.22.19.04
6. Notes
Empty Fieldsalternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository month nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url
7. Description control
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