| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Journal Article | |||
| Site | mtc-m21c.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34R/44ED6E5 | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2021/04.02.13.44 | |||
| Last Update | 2021:04.02.13.48.16 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2021/04.02.13.44.53 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2022:06.07.22.38.13 (UTC) administrator | |||
| DOI | 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0203.1 | |||
| ISSN | 0882-8156 | |||
| Citation Key | KlingamanYCGGWCKH:2021:SuPrPe | |||
| Title | Subseasonal prediction performance for austral summer South American rainfall  | |||
| Year | 2021 | |||
| Access Date | 2025, June 04 | |||
| Type of Work | journal article | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE PI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 4906 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Klingaman, Nicholas P. 2 Young, Matthew 3 Chevuturi, Amulya 4 Guimarães, Bruno dos Santos 5 Guo, Liang 6 Woolnought, Steven J. 7 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 8 Kubota, Paulo Yoshio 9 Holloway, Christopher E. | |||
| Group | 1 2 3 4 MET-MET-DIPGR-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 5 6 7 DIPTC-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 8 DIMNT-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 University of Reading 2 University of Reading 3 University of Reading 4 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 5 University of Reading 6 University of Reading 7 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 8 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 9 University of Reading | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 nicholas.klingaman@ncas.ac.uk 2 3 4 bruno.guimaraes@inpe.br 5 6 7 caio.augusto.coelho@gmail.com 8 pkubota@gmail.com | |||
| Journal | Weather and Forecasting | |||
| Volume | 36 | |||
| Number | 1 | |||
| Pages | 147-169 | |||
| Secondary Mark | A2_INTERDISCIPLINAR A2_GEOCIÊNCIAS | |||
| History (UTC) | 2021-04-02 13:44:53 :: simone -> administrator :: 2021-04-02 13:44:54 :: administrator -> simone :: 2021 2021-04-02 13:48:18 :: simone -> administrator :: 2021 2022-06-07 22:38:13 :: administrator -> simone :: 2021 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Keywords | South America ENSO Madden-Julian oscillation Rainfall Forecast verification/skill Intraseasonal variability | |||
| Abstract | Skillful and reliable predictions of week-to-week rainfall variations in South America, two to three weeks ahead, are essential to protect lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems. We evaluate forecast performance for weekly rainfall in extended austral summer (NovemberMarch) in four contemporary subseasonal systems, including a new Brazilian model, at 15-week leads for 19992010. We measure performance by the correlation coefficient (in time) between predicted and observed rainfall; we measure skill by the Brier skill score for rainfall terciles against a climatological reference forecast. We assess unconditional performance (i.e., regardless of initial condition) and conditional performance based on the initial phase of the MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO) and El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO). All models display substantial mean rainfall biases, including dry biases in Amazonia and wet biases near the Andes, which are established by week 1 and vary little thereafter. Unconditional performance extends to week 2 in all regions except for Amazonia and the Andes, but to week 3 only over northern, northeastern, and southeastern South America. Skill for upper-and lower-tercile rainfall extends only to week 1. Conditional performance is not systematically or significantly higher than unconditional perfor-mance; ENSO and MJO events provide limited windows of opportunity for improved S2S predictions that are region and model dependent. Conditional performance may be degraded by errors in predicted ENSO and MJO teleconnections to regional rainfall, even at short lead times. | |||
| Area | MET | |||
| Arrangement 1 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção pgr ATUAIS > MET > Subseasonal prediction performance... | |||
| Arrangement 2 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção a partir de 2021 > CGCT > Subseasonal prediction performance... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| data URL | http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/44ED6E5 | |||
| zipped data URL | http://urlib.net/zip/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/44ED6E5 | |||
| Language | en | |||
| Target File | klingaman_subseasonal.pdf | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher6 allowfinaldraft | |||
| Read Permission | allow from all | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F35TRS 8JMKD3MGPCW/46KUATE | |||
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/10.15.01.34 10 sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2022/04.03.22.23 4 | |||
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA; COMPENDEX. | |||
| Host Collection | urlib.net/www/2017/11.22.19.04 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository month nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||