%0 Book Section
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F35TRS
%3 torres_future.pdf
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2018/05.04.18.45
%A Torres, Roger Rodrigues,
%A Lapola, David Montenegro,
%A Gamarra, Nancy Laura Rios,
%@secondarytype PRE LI
%B Caatinga: the largest tropical dry forest region in South America
%D 2018
%E Silva, José Maria Cardoso da,
%E Leal, Inara R.,
%E Tabarelli, Marcelo,
%@secondarykey INPE--/
%I Springer
%K Climate change, Northeast Brazil, Caatinga, Drought, Vulnerability, Impacts.
%P 383-410
%T Future climate change in the Caatinga
%X This chapter discusses the general aspects of climate variability and climate change in South America, with a special focus on Brazils northeast region in which the Caatinga is located. It describes the main findings reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), and provides a brief review of the literature addressing climate change in northeast Brazil. In addition, simulations and projections of temperature and precipitation changes provided by 24 state-of-the art Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset that were analyzed in the IPCC AR5 are assessed. For scenarios of future projections, the near surface air temperature should increase by at least 1 °C for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 (low radiative forcing scenario) and by 4 °C for the RCP8.5 (high radiative forcing scenario) by the end of the twenty-first century. For the Caatinga, there is a considerable spread amongst rainfall change projections of ±1 mm day−1, relative to 19611990, making it hard to identify any tendency in projected rainfall change. However, the RCP8.5 forcing scenario shows a slight rainfall reduction of about 0.3 mm day−1 by 2100. Among the most affected regions in Brazil, the Amazon and northeast regions appear to be large hotspots. For some modeling studies, projections of the future climate show a savannization of parts of the Amazon and desertification of the Caatinga region, with potential adverse impacts on biodiversity, supply and quality of water resources, carbon storage, and the provision of other ecosystem services.
%@area MET
%@electronicmailaddress roger.torres@unifei.edu.br
%@documentstage not transferred
%@group
%@group
%@group MET-MET-SESPG-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR
%@dissemination BNDEPOSITOLEGAL
%@isbn 978-331968339-3
%@usergroup simone
%@affiliation Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
%@affiliation Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@versiontype publisher
%@doi 10.1007/978-3-319-68339-3_15
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2018/05.04.18.45.25