%0 Journal Article
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F35TRS
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/46KUATE
%3 penna_moisture.pdf
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2021/03.02.18.26
%8 Jan.
%9 journal article
%@issn 0899-8418
%A Penna, Ana Caroline,
%A Torres, Roger Rodrigues,
%A Garcia, Sâmia Regina,
%A Marengo, José Antônio,
%@secondarytype PRE PI
%B International Journal of Climatology
%D 2021
%K climate change, CMIP5, moisture balance, South America.
%@archivingpolicy denypublisher denyfinaldraft
%N S1
%P E935-E951
%@secondarymark A1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A1_ENGENHARIAS_I A1_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS A1_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I A2_INTERDISCIPLINAR A2_BIODIVERSIDADE B1_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I
%T Moisture flows on Southeast Brazil: Present and future climate
%V 41
%X The characterization of the moisture flows over South America, with a special focus on the Southeast Brazil (SEB), was performed through the analysis of 21 Earth System Models (ESMs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the present climate (19712000) and projections for the late 21st century (20712100) using a scenario of high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). The results show that the ESMs simulate well the spatial distribution of the flow and the divergence of moisture in the present climate, when compared with the 20CRv2c reanalysis, although some biases have been identified. In relation to the magnitude of the moisture flow, the models underestimate the moisture convergence mainly on the central, south and southeast regions of South America. On SEB, the simulations show that the main sources of moisture for the region come from the north and east edges, confirming the contribution of moisture from the Amazon Basin and the South Atlantic Ocean. Climate change projections indicate an increase in moisture flow across South America, and regions of moisture convergence (divergence) in the present climate are projected to be even more convergent (divergent) in the future climate. In addition, the moisture flow over the SEB also showed to be more intensified on all lateral edges, as well as the moisture balance. This result is consistent with some studies on projections of climate change towards the end of the 21st century, which indicate that there will be an intensification of meteorological systems such as the Low Level Jet and the South American Monsoon System, contributing to the increase of moisture transport to the SEB region.
%@area MET
%@electronicmailaddress
%@electronicmailaddress roger.torres@unifei.edu.br
%@electronicmailaddress
%@electronicmailaddress jose.marengo@inpe.br
%@documentstage not transferred
%@group MET-MET-DIPGR-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
%@dissemination WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; COMPENDEX; SCOPUS.
%@orcid 0000-0002-5214-3949
%@orcid 0000-0002-5684-3125
%@orcid 0000-0003-3262-8196
%@orcid 0000-0001-8578-7639
%@usergroup simone
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
%@affiliation Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
%@affiliation Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)
%@versiontype publisher
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@doi 10.1002/joc.6738
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2021/03.02.18.26.51