%0 Journal Article
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F35TRS
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/46KUATE
%3 ferreira_projected.pdf
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2021/04.02.14.47
%8 Mar.
%9 journal article
%@issn 1387-585X
%A Ferreira, Nicole Costa Resende,
%A Miranda, Jarbas Honorio,
%@secondarytype PRE PN
%B Environment, Development and Sustainability
%D 2021
%K SISDRENA · Eta model · Drainage systems · Climate change.
%N 3
%P 3236-3250
%@secondarymark B1_INTERDISCIPLINAR B1_GEOGRAFIA B1_BIODIVERSIDADE B2_FARMÁCIA B2_ENGENHARIAS_I B3_ZOOTECNIA_/_RECURSOS_PESQUEIROS B3_GEOCIÊNCIAS B3_ECONOMIA B3_BIOTECNOLOGIA B4_ENGENHARIAS_III B4_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I C_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I
%T Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in Parana, Brazil
%V 23
%X We investigate the impacts of climate changes in corn crop profitability and productivity in Parana (Brazil), using SISDRENA model, considering different spacings between drains. SISDRENA model is used as input, daily precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration, properties of the drainage system, data of crop requirement, and physical and hydrological soil parameters. We use climate data from the Eta model. The baseline period of the simulation is from 1981 to 2005. For the future projections, we use the greenhouse gas emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from 2046 to 2070. We concluded that there are variations in evapotranspiration over the years in the historical simulation, but in the future, this variability tends to be higher. There is a tendency for increased evapotranspiration in both scenarios in the future. We found a large variability of precipitation in both historical simulation and future projections. Changes in precipitation depend on location. In terms of both profitability and productivity, the 10-m spacing between drains is the most recommended. In historical simulation and future projections, it is found large variability in corn productivity over the years. We found that there is no agreement between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which shows uncertainty in the results. In general, in RCP4.5 the tendency is to increase 3% of productivity (not significant), while in RCP8.5 the tendency is to decrease 1% (significant), compared to the baseline period. This research contributes to better farmer management and decision making, providing recommendations for the best layout for current and future climate, and indicates trends in corn productivity in future scenarios.
%@area MET
%@electronicmailaddress nicole.resende@usp.br
%@electronicmailaddress jhmirand@usp.br
%@documentstage not transferred
%@group MET-MET-DIPGR-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
%@usergroup simone
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
%@versiontype publisher
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@doi 10.1007/s10668-020-00715-z
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2021/04.02.14.47.42